DATE=09/29/03

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=TRADE TALKS/FUTURE (L-O)

NUMBER=2-308039

BYLINE=BARRY WOOD

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTERNET=YES

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: U-S government and industry trade experts are pessimistic about early action to restart the global trade liberalization talks that were deadlocked earlier this month at a trade ministers meeting in Cancun, Mexico. V-O-A's Barry Wood has more from Washington.

TEXT: Assistant U-S Trade Representative Christopher Padilla told a forum at the Cato Institute that developing countries were unwilling to discuss further opening of their generally closed markets, and are focused exclusively on the shortcomings of rich countries, particularly agricultural subsidies. This intransigence, he said, caused the deadlock.

Developing nations at the talks in Cancun, Mexico, criticized the failure of the West to adequately address their concerns regarding agricultural subsidies.

Mr. Padilla is not optimistic that the failure at Cancun will be reversed at a lower level meeting set for December at W-T-O headquarters in Geneva.

/// PADILLA ACT ///

Frankly, I think that's not likely to lead to a lot of concrete results, unless and until countries that were at Cancun and unwilling to negotiate show a different attitude in Geneva. Generally, it is not the case that ambassadors in Geneva are able to deliver compromises, when ministers at ministerials are unable to.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Padilla said the failure at Cancun will not deter the Bush administration from its goal of trade liberalization. He said Washington will pursue more bilateral trade liberalization agreements.

Scott Miller, the trade specialist at Cincinnati-based Procter and Gamble, the world's biggest maker of home care products, says he is troubled by the failure at Cancun. He blames the United States and the European Union for failing to scale back their farm subsidies in advance of the trade meeting.

But Mr. Miller also says he has come to believe that influential developing countries, like Brazil and India, favor the status quo in trade, rather than further liberalization.

/// MILLER ACT ///

They believe it is in their economic interests to stick with the predictable quotas and preferences that already exist, whereever they may originate from, and to avoid opening their home markets to competition. Somehow, they think that is a good deal.

/// END ACT ///

Other speakers, all of them American, were unwilling to completely write off the prospect of a successful completion of the current round of trade talks, begun in Doha in 2001. But none were optimistic that the round will be completed on schedule by the end of next year.

Bruce Stokes of the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations suggested that U-S and European policy should be directed at trying to approach the poorest countries who have the most to gain from expanded trade. Mr. Stokes said these efforts should take place without the participation of what he called "the obstructionist bloc" of middle income developing countries who were so influential at Cancun.

The United States and European Union -- the world's biggest trading entities -- have traditionally been the most powerful players within the 146 member nation W-T-O. (SIGNED)

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