DATE=September 24, 2002

TYPE=Dateline

NUMBER=7-36751

TITLE=Impact of Macedonian Elections

BYLINE=Judith Latham

TELEPHONE=202-619-3464

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Neal Lavon (v/o: 9:31; m/o: 12:27)

DISK: DATELINE THEME [PLAYED IN STUDIO, FADED UNDER DATELINE HOST VOICE OR PROGRAMMING MATERIAL]

HOST: Macedonia's recent parliamentary elections were won by the moderate Social Democrats [9/15/02]. Western observers have called the vote a major step toward stability in the Balkans. But questions remain about the difficulties of forming a new coalition government of ethnic Macedonians, who are the majority, and ethnic Albanians, who constitute a sizable minority. Today's Dateline explores some of the complexities of the parliamentary election results in Macedonia. Here's Judith Latham.

JL: Ten days ago voters in Macedonia swept aside a coalition of two nationalist parties one ethnic Macedonian and the other ethnic Albanian for the more moderate Social Democrats. Macedonians blamed the two nationalist parties for escalating last year's ethnic conflict. As a result, the Social Democrats took almost two-thirds of the Macedonian vote. They must now decide whether to share power with a new force in the country an ethnic Albanian party led by Ali Ahmeti [AH-lee ah-MEH-tee]. Mr. Ahmeti orchestrated last year's guerrilla rebellion and then agreed to disarm in return for legislation to improve minority rights.

Eran Fraenkel [air-RAHN FRANK-el], Southeast European Regional Director of Search for Common Ground, headquartered in Brussels, was in Macedonia for the elections. Mr. Fraenkel says he had expected VMRO [pronounced VEM-eh-roh], the ethnic Macedonian party of Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievsky [LYOOB-koh gher-GHYEF-skee], to be defeated by the Social Democrats, or S-D-S-M, but not by such a huge margin.

TAPE: CUT #1: FRAENKEL [FM LATHAM] 0:19

"I was living there full time until July and for the preceding eight years. There seemed to be no question that, as soon as there were elections, the VMRO government would be ousted. And for lack of any other choice, SDSM would be returned to power. But, I would not have predicted an overwhelming SDSM victory when I was there."

JL: Eran Fraenkel says there were a number of issues on the minds of voters government corruption, a bad economy, high unemployment, last year's war, and interethnic relations. But it's not clear how much change will take place with a new political leadership.

TAPE: CUT #2: FRAENKEL [FM LATHAM] 0:50

(OPT) "I think the answers to your questions about whether it will herald a new era or lead to reduction in corruption and all those questions about the economy are ones to which there is no answer. (END OPT) Anybody who tells you they've got an answer is not being quite honest with you. The reason VMRO lost in the way it did is not because Macedonia now loves SDSM but because, just like in the elections four years ago, they [voters] had lost all patience with the government in power. The reason this time had more to do with corruption than it did with the war last year. The war last year was a cataclysmic event in people's lives, but I think what affected people more on a day-to-day basis was that the political and economic system was not functioning because of corruption. (OPT) So I think SDSM has a clear idea of what the electorate expects. Whether they will actually deliver on it is an open question. (END OPT) I think the international community feels that with the new government they can bring more constructive pressure to bear on the government to deal with the issues of corruption."

JL: However, the most intriguing political question, Mr. Fraenkel says, is whether and how the Social Democrats will bring the Albanian Democratic Union for Integration, or D-U-I party of Ali Ahmeti, into a coalition government.

Observers hope the new government will support the Ohrid [OH-creed] Framework Agreement. The Ohrid Agreement ended last year's conflict and provided for the disarmament of Albanian rebels, deployment of NATO troops in the country, and greater freedoms for the Albanian minority. It also awarded amnesty for most crimes committed in the fighting.

The agreement, says Mr. Fraenkel, and its adoption by the S-D-S-M, is still a controversial subject in Macedonia.

TAPE: CUT #3: FRAENKEL [FM LATHAM] 0:44

(OPT) "What SDSM is facing is a very interesting dilemma, and I'll be curious to see how they deal with it. (END OPT) They now are facing the paradox of having the single largest Albanian bloc of M-Ps [members of Parliament] being from Ali Ahmeti's party DUI who were elected following a rather moderate campaign. Within the ethnic Macedonian electorate, even among moderate Macedonians, there is a tremendous feeling of resistance to the idea of Ali Ahmeti being in the government. The Social Democrats now need to have a coalition with Albanians both pragmatically and as a legal requirement. How they do that, however, is going to be a fine balancing act. If they do it in a way that is acceptable to everybody, the Ohrid agreement will have a better chance of being implemented. (OPT) But the Ohrid agreement by itself is still a subject of a high level of resentment on the part of the ethnic Macedonian community, irrespective of whether Ali Ahmeti or anybody else was to join the government." (END OPT)

JL: Eran Fraenkel of Search for Common Ground says the new government will face "a lot of challenges both domestically and internationally," but he is optimistic about their chances of success in the long term.

TAPE: CUT #4: FRAENKEL [FM LATHAM] 0:15

"I think Macedonia has been given a new chance to get away from the war psychosis and to try to develop a healthy pluralistic society. And we'll see over the next few months and into the next year whether that challenge is something they can meet or not."

JL: Nicola Dimitrov [NEE-ko-lah de-MEE-trof], the Macedonian Ambassador to the United States, says that in comparison with other states in the Balkans, Macedonia's human rights record is "impressively good."

TAPE: CUT #5: DIMITROV [FM LATHAM] 0:51

"We had very successful elections that were called an example for the rest of the Balkan countries. The Prime Minister congratulated the opposition in the manner of a great statesman. He pledged that his party would be a constructive opposition in the next four years. And we are now creating a new government and new coalitions. One of the big issues here will be what to do with the leader of the former military organization, or a terrorist organization, depending on your perspective Ali Ahmeti, who is now head of a political party that won the most seats in the areas dominated by Macedonian Albanians. Whether he is going to be part of the coalition is under negotiations now. It's one of the great items on the agenda of the international community as well."

JL: Brenda Pearson, senior research fellow at the U-S Institute of Peace, is writing a book on last year's conflict between the ethnic Albanians and Macedonians. She returned to Macedonia for the recent elections and spoke with us by cell phone from Bitola [BEE-toh-lah]. Ms. Pearson says her greatest surprise was not the victory of the Social Democrats but the elimination of the small parties.

TAPE: CUT #6: PEARSON [FM LATHAM] 0:20

"They'll have an outright majority comprised of Macedonian politicians. But in Macedonia there has historically been a governing coalition comprised of both Albanians and Macedonians. So it's not that they need the numbers so much for parliamentary activity, but they need it for the stability of the country. And that hasn't changed at all."

JL: Brenda Pearson says Ali Ahmeti, whom many ethnic Macedonians consider a "terrorist," signaled he will not request a seat in Parliament for himself, but will remain as party leader. Even though Mr. Ahmeti won 70 percent of the Albanian vote, she says the time may not be ripe for the Macedonian public to "accept him as the legitimate leader."

Ms. Pearson attributes the political defeat in the elections of ethnic Albanian leader Arben Xaferi [AR-ben jah-FAIR-ee], who is "considered one of the great political philosophers of his generation," to a vote against the "criminal enterprises that have infiltrated the Albanian community." She says voters in general are weary of "political nepotism" and of the unemployment that hovers around one-third of the working-age population.

TAPE: CUT #7: PEARSON [FM LATHAM] 0:27

"I think the average citizen in the country whether Albanian, Macedonian, Turkish, Vlach, Bosnian, or Roma is tired of the lack of institutional support for the most basic public services. I think that one year after the conflict there is a growing realization that perhaps the politicians manipulated the escalation and de-escalation of interethnic tensions. So, all of those factors led to their defeat."

JL: Brenda Pearson says she thinks most people want to put inter-ethnic issues "behind them" and are committed to keeping Macedonia together as a "unitary state." She believes all the political leaders "understand they are under enormous pressure" from the international community to implement the Ohrid agreement. But she thinks that process will take a "very long time." Brenda Pearson says the new government will face three major hurdles rebuilding Macedonia's "security structure," awarding jobs on the basis of "competency and not on political affiliation," and strengthening the economy.

TAPE: CUT #8: PEARSON [FM LATHAM] 0:12

"I think the next year-and-a-half will be very critical for Macedonia. And if they pass this hurdle, then I would be much more comfortable saying that the long-term prognosis is good."

JL: The other major factor in Macedonian politics, Ms. Pearson says, is the status of Kosovo. And as long as the future of Kosovo "remains undetermined," it will continue to be a "destabilizing factor" in Macedonia.

Daniel Serwer, director of the Balkans Initiative at the U-S Institute of Peace in Washington, says he does not expect major changes in the near term.

TAPE: CUT #9: SERWER [FM KLEIN] 0:22

"I think on the economic side, which concerns Macedonians above all, they're going to have to be a bit patient. There's no instant solution on the economic side. It's very much my hope you'll see a clean-up on the corruption side. The parties likely to come to power are parties that whole-heartedly support the Ohrid peace agreement, and that seems to be important as well. (OPT) They are significantly more committed to implementation of Ohrid than the two parties that were previously in power and that had in fact signed the Ohrid agreement. But in the campaign they became significantly less supportive of it." (END OPT)

JL: Mr. Serwer says he is optimistic about Macedonia's political future.

TAPE: CUT #10: SERWER [FM KLEIN] 0:17

"There are a couple of good signs. One is that the elections were reasonably clean and relatively non-violent. (OPT) That is, relative to Macedonia's previous experience. I think the immediate post-election statements were more than correct. They were even dignified at times. It seems to me that is important as well. So far as the economic situation is concerned, as I've indicated, reform in Macedonia is long overdue, and it's going to take some time to see the positive benefits. People are going to have to be patient. (END OPT) On the political side, I am quite optimistic about implementation of the Ohrid agreement. And I think that's an important precondition to economic success."

JL: Daniel Serwer of the U-S Institute of Peace was a former Minister-Councilor at the State Department. A new government is expected to be formed in Macedonia within days. Most analysts expect that the victorious Social Democrats will reach out to the new Albanian party led by last year's guerrillas. And some analysts predict that Ali Ahmeti's party might account for 14 of the 120 seats in the Macedonian parliament.

TAPE B: TAPE #1: MACEDONIAN FOLK MUSIC: SKOPJE, SKOPJE (performed by Ansamble Teodosievski). ESTABLISH, UNDER, AND UP AFTER SIGN-OFF.

JL: For Dateline, I'm Judith Latham.