DATE=11/29/02
TYPE=INTERVIEW TRANSCRIPT
TITLE=EMIL OREN, POLITICAL COMMENTATOR OF THE ISRAELI NEWSPAPER HA'ARETZ
NUMBER=3-442
BYLINE=VICTOR BEATTIE
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=
/// Editors: This interview is available in Dalet under SOD/English News Now Interviews in the folder for today or yesterday ///
HOST: The international investigation into Thursday's attacks in eastern Kenya on two Israeli targets is underway. The attacks came the same day Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was re-elected as Likud Party leader in domestic politics. Mr. Sharon, who faces Labor Party leader and fellow former general Amram Mitzna in a January 28th ballot, vowed to hunt down those responsible for the attacks, which left three Israelis among the dead. V-O-A's Victor Beattie spoke with political commentator Emil Oren of the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz about who might have been responsible for Thursday's Kenya attacks.
MR. OREN: All suspicions and indications point to al-Qaida. But because al-Qaida is a loose confederation of terror franchises, they may very well have been aided by people who also operate along with Hezbollah or Palestinian organizations. But if one has to point to a prime suspect, al-Qaida would be it.
MR. BEATTIE: Will Israel have to rethink its visibility, if you will, outside of its borders now?
MR. OREN: Well, actually, the potential was there all along. There are six-million Israelis and, at any one time, some 10 percent of them are abroad, mostly in the States but also in Europe, Asia, Africa, wherever. And it is impossible even for the vaunted Israeli security service to guard everyone everywhere. Therefore, there are only certain targets, such as political and national leaders, aircraft, embassies, which are put under heavy guard. So, each Israeli has to look out for themselves.
While it was a simultaneous attack, one on the hotel and another on the airliner, the major attack was the one, which did not succeed. The one on the airliner was the far worse scenario. And this has meant that Israel's deterrence has failed. Because the technology was there all along. Such surface-to-air hand-held missiles have been around since the early seventies. And the fact that they weren't used was probably due to the fact that those organizations -- mostly Palestinian -- which had it in mind even 30 years ago thought better. And now, organizations like al-Qaida, having no base for Israel to hit, and no political handle, which Israel could use to compel them to cease and desist, they can act with impunity.
MR. BEATTIE: This ties in with domestic Israeli politics. As of course you know, and many of our listeners already know, there was an election for party leader in the Likud bloc in Israel, and Mr. Sharon, the current prime minister, has won that. And now he faces the Labor candidate. Do you anticipate that these terror incidents, both at home and abroad, will lead to an easy Sharon victory?
MR. OREN: Well, not an easy Sharon victory, if there will be such a victory, which is what is assumed now. But we are 60 days prior to the election day itself which, by the way, this time is going to be a general election -- meaning an election between two generals, two retired generals, Sharon on the one hand and General Mitzna on the other hand on the Labor ticket.
What happened yesterday in the Likud branch in the town of Beit Shean, was really significant. Because even though 700 Israelis have already been killed in two years of violence by the Palestinians, nevertheless, there is a difference between a run-of-the-mill murder and a political assassination. And this was an attack on the ruling party branch, as it was handling its own primary election, which exposed the vulnerability of all Israelis, and showing Israel that Prime Minister Sharon cannot even protect his own party stalwarts.
So, whether such attacks will strengthen the hand of hardliners or weaken them remains to be seen.
HOST: Mr. Oren says Prime Minister Sharon has been able to convince the Israeli public he represents the center-right of Israeli politics, while Mr. Mitzna has staked out the political left in Israeli politics. In light of the current atmosphere, Mr. Oren says, that would seem to favor Mr. Sharon's re-election as prime minister in January.
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