Back to the WORLD NEWS

. 10 Palestinian Militants Killed in West Bank Clashes .

. VOA News 14 Mar 2003, 16:13 UTC x x

.

Israeli forces have killed five Palestinian gunmen during a raid on a house in the Jenin refugee camp, raising to 10 the number of militants killed in less than 24-hours. 

Israeli and Palestinian sources say the five men were killed during a gunfight that erupted early Friday when troops moved in to make arrests at the house in the West Bank camp. 

Palestinian cabinet minister Saeb Erekat described the Israeli action as "a new massacre in the West Bank." He accused Israel of exploiting the crisis in Iraq to take aggressive actions in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and called on the international community to intervene. 

Palestinians say four of the dead militants were members of Islamic Jihad, and the other was from the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades - an armed group connected with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat's Fatah movement. 

Israeli sources say a sixth gunman reported earlier to have been shot and killed may have been wounded and escaped. Israeli officials say troops found weapons and Israeli army uniforms in the house. 

In another operation late Thursday, Israeli troops killed five members of the militant group Hamas in the village of Tamoun, not far from Jenin. The army said the activists were on Israel's wanted list and that one of the them was wearing an explosives belt. 

Israel has intensified military action against Hamas since the militant Islamic group said it was responsible for blowing up an Israeli tank last month in the Gaza Strip, killing four soldiers. During the last 24 hours alone, more than 30 Palestinians have been arrested in West Bank operations. 

Email this article to a friend. 
Printer Friendly Version

.

End of article 1

. Bush Links Mideast Peace 'Road Map' to Palestinian Reforms .

. VOA News 14 Mar 2003, 17:38 UTC x x

.

President Bush says he will release a long-awaited "road map" for peace between Israel and the Palestinians as soon as the Palestinians confirm a new prime minster with what he called real authority. 

Speaking at the White House Friday, Mr. Bush said the blueprint will include steps leading to Israel and a Palestinian state living side-by-side in peace. 

The Palestinian parliament voted this week to create a prime minister's post, but did not give the new office control of negotiations with Israel or security issues now handled by Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. Those duties would remain with Mr. Arafat - a delegation of powers opposed by the United States. 

Israel said it agrees ("sees eye-to-eye") with Mr. Bush's approach. In Gaza, Palestinian cabinet minister Saeb Erekat said he wants a clear timetable for implementation of a peace plan. He also said he wants Mr. Bush to clarify whether the road map would be introduced for discussion or for actual implementation. 

In London, British Prime Minister Tony Blair hailed Mr. Bush's comments and pledged to help in any way he can. He also said the Palestinian Legislative Council could approve prime minister-nominee Mahmoud Abbas for the post as early as next week. 

The United States, Russia, the United Nations and the European Union hope to provide guidelines for the creation of a Palestinian state by 2005, including land currently held by Israel. 

Speaking to reporters, President Bush said the recent elections in Israel and the work of the Palestinian Authority toward creating a prime minister's position have created a hopeful moment. He described it as a chance to move forward. 

Some information for this report provided by AFP and AP.

Email this article to a friend. 
Printer Friendly Version

.

End of article 2

. Erdogan Becomes PM; Forms New Turkish Government .

. VOA News 14 Mar 2003, 18:44 UTC x x

.

Turkish politician Recep Tayyip Erdogan has assumed the post of prime minister and formed a new government, possibly clearing the way for a new vote on a U.S. troop deployment in Turkey. President Ahmet Necdet Sezer met with Mr. Erdogan Friday at the presidential palace and approved his cabinet list. Outgoing Prime Minister Abdullah Gul was named to fill the posts of deputy prime minister and foreign minister. 

The new 22-member cabinet is made up entirely of Mr. Erdogan's fellow Justice and Development Party members. But one minister who did not keep his portfolio is Deputy Prime Minister Ertugrul Yalcinbayir, who is a vocal opponent of U.S. troop deployment in Turkey, an issue likely to be high on the new government's agenda. 

Mr. Erdogan's government could call for a new vote in the Turkish parliament on whether to allow U.S. forces to use Turkish military bases in the event of a war against Iraq. The United States has also been pressing Ankara for access to Turkish airspace in any military action against Iraq. 

Two weeks ago, the Turkish parliament rejected a motion to allow U.S. troops to use Turkish military bases to open a second front in northern Iraq in case of war. The United States had offered Turkey billions of dollars in U.S. grants and loan guarantees in the deal. 

On Thursday, U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Robert Pearson delivered a letter from President Bush to Mr. Erdogan. Senior Turkish officials say Mr. Bush asked Ankara to clarify its position on a U.S. troop deployment, along with permission for the U.S. military to fly over Turkish airspace. Turkish media also report that U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney phoned Mr. Erdogan late Thursday to discuss the situation. 

Some information for this report provided by AP, AFP and Reuters.

Email this article to a friend. 
Printer Friendly Version

.

End of article 3

. US Warships Moving From Mediterranean to Red Sea .

. VOA News 14 Mar 2003, 19:20 UTC x x

.

The United States, signaling growing impatience with Turkey, has begun moving warships capable of launching cruise missiles from the eastern Mediterranean to the Red Sea for a possible war with Iraq. 

U.S. Defense Department officials say the ships Friday began moving through the Suez Canal to the northern Red Sea. Eventually, 12 vessels in all may be moved, possibly including two aircraft carriers: the USS Harry S. Truman and the USS Theodore Roosevelt. The move was prompted by Turkey's refusal so far to grant overflight rights to U.S. aircraft and cruise missiles in a possible war with Iraq. The military movements come even as the United Nations weapons inspection process continues in Iraq. 

Weapons inspectors say Baghdad Friday destroyed four more al-Sammoud 2 missiles north of the capital. So far, Baghdad has destroyed 65 of the banned missiles. Meanwhile, Baghdad is expected to submit a report to the United Nations Friday or Saturday, detailing what it says is the disposal of its stockpile of the deadly nerve agent known as VX. 

Iraqi diplomats say the VX stockpile was destroyed in 1991, and Iraqi officials have reportedly pinpointed the location where the stocks were buried. But U.N. weapons inspectors say they want to interview witnesses involved in the destruction process and see related documents. 

In related developments, a top Muslim cleric in Iraq has urged Iraqis around the world to attack U.S. interests and wage jihad (holy struggle) to defend Iraq against any U.S.-led war. In Friday prayers at a Baghdad mosque, Abdul Razzaq al-Saadi said it is the duty of all Muslims to threaten U.S. interests, and, "to set them on fire." 

Meanwhile, a U.S. military statement says U.S. and British aircraft targeted an Iraqi radar site overnight in response to a threat on coalition aircraft operating in the no-fly zone in southern Iraq. Coalition aircraft also dropped leaflets near Iraqi anti-aircraft artillery batteries in the northern no-fly zone, warning them of the consequences of threatening the planes. 

Some information for this report provided by AP and Reuters.

Email this article to a friend. 
Printer Friendly Version

.

End of article 4

. US-Britain-Spain Meeting on Iraq to be Held Sunday .

. VOA News 14 Mar 2003, 22:04 UTC x x

.

President Bush is to meet with the prime ministers of Britain and Spain Sunday to discuss what U.S. officials call "all final diplomatic options" regarding Iraq. 

A spokesman says the one-day meeting in the Azores islands in the eastern Atlantic will focus on how to make it "unequivocally clear" that Saddam Hussein will face serious consequences if he fails to disarm. 

The White House says Mr. Bush will present British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Spain's Jose Maria Aznar with his assessment of Saddam Hussein's threat to peace. 

The three nations are struggling to win U.N. Security Council approval for a draft resolution to set a deadline for Iraq to disarm or face military action. 

Russia, China and France, all with veto power on the 15-member Council, oppose the measure. 

French President Jacques Chirac said Friday he is ready to work with Britain to explore ways of disarming Iraq. A spokeswoman says he continues to reject an ultimatum. 

One of the six undecided non-permanent Council members, Chile, says it is offering a compromise proposal that gives Iraq three weeks to meet five disarmament conditions. The White House immediately rejected the proposal. 

Administration officials say the proposal may never be put to a vote in the council if the opposition to it continues. 

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder told parliament Friday the Iraq crisis can be solved peacefully, saying U.N. weapons inspectors can produce "sustainable and verifiable disarmament." 

Some information for this report provided by AP.

Email this article to a friend. 
Printer Friendly Version

.

End of article 5

. Analysis: UK assault on France .

. Thursday, 13 March, 2003, 11:14 GMT x x

.

The UK Government has launched a systematic attack on France for blocking a new resolution on Iraq.

It is a sign that Britain is determined to blame France if the resolution fails and Britain goes to war. 

Tony Blair: Under pressure at home and abroad

The tactic - evident already on Wednesday when Prime Minister Tony Blair himself criticised France for its "No in all circumstances" position - came centre stage on Thursday. 

The UK Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, deliberately stepped in front of the microphones in Downing Street and called a French decision to reject the latest British proposals "extraordinary".

It is extraordinary, to use Mr Straw's own word, for criticism to be made so openly. 

Entente not cordial

The Entente Cordiale, which celebrates its 100th anniversary next year, is anything but cordial. 

Mr Straw said that efforts to get a new resolution at the UN would continue possibly into the weekend but the feeling is growing in London that the effort is on the verge of failure.

In any event, Mr Straw said on Wednesday that he expected the "process" to end soon.

The comments of the Conservative Party leader, Iain Duncan Smith, indicating that Mr Blair was gloomy about a new resolution, were significant. He was speaking after a special meeting with the prime minister.

Mr Blair appears ready to strike out on his own and join the Americans. 

He will try to see off his domestic critics with the force of his convictions and will divert the blame across the Channel. That is always an option for a British leader. 

Six tests

The British proposals at the UN involve setting Saddam Hussein a series of tests to see if he is serious about disarmament. The idea is to entice doubters on the Council to support a new resolution.

These tests have been rejected by France, because Paris believes that the weapons inspectors should be doing the job and not the Council. 

France is sticking to its position that war is not necessary while inspections are working.

One British test requires Saddam Hussein to make a public statement, in Arabic and therefore to his own people,saying that he has hidden weapons of mass destruction and will give them up.

This is perhaps the most difficult of the demands. The idea of Saddam Hussein going public with a humiliating climbdown and mea culpa is difficult to imagine. 

Indeed, this demand brings to mind the demarche made by Austria to Serbia after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo in 1914. It was designed to be so harsh as to be rejected. War followed not long afterwards. 
 

.

End of article 6

. Chirac's moment of destiny .

. Friday, 14 March, 2003, 20:03 GMT x x

.

It can never be very comfortable being monstered by the British press, but President Jacques Chirac is probably getting used to it by now.

Any bonhomie has drained out of relations

Two weeks ago he was a worm. Now - again in The Sun - he is compared unfavourably to Saddam Hussein himself. 

Even the more serious papers have decided he has gone too far. 

Taking their cue from Downing Street - which said on Thursday Mr Chirac was "poisoning" diplomacy - the Times and Telegraph accuse him of undermining the US and Britain in a vainglorious bid to restore French pride. 

Even Jean-Marie Le Pen can only admit that he would not play France's hand any better

France is increasingly seen - in London now as well as Washington - as the villain of the whole Iraqi shambles and if war does take place without a new United Nations resolution the British Government will do all it can to make sure Mr Chirac takes the blame. 

But all this causes little apparent concern on this side of the channel, where the president has one vital weapon which he knows is lacking to his British colleague: public opinion. 

Chirac's mission

While Tony Blair frets about Labour rebellions and cabinet resignations - and serious commentators raise the prospect even of his political demise - Jacques Chirac has the self-confidence of a man who feels he is finally assuming his destiny. 

The truth is that his decision to take on the US and Britain, and to threaten the veto on any UN resolution he feels is a trigger to war, is almost universally applauded in France. There is barely a note of dissent. 

Blair faces a cabinet rebellion at home

If in Britain the press reflects the passionate debate that exists between two sides over the benefits and morality of going to war, in France the consensus is stifling. 

While left-wingers find it impossible not to acclaim a leader who is facing down America and championing the cause of peace, for right-wingers Mr Chirac is accomplishing the mission of his political mentor Charles de Gaulle and making France walk tall. 

Even the ultra-nationalist leader Jean-Marie Le Pen - who has always had a very indulgent eye towards Saddam Hussein - can only admit that he would not play France's hand any better. 

For most French, the difficulties that Tony Blair is going through are self-inflicted. He has tied himself too slavishly to the American boot, is the feeling, and his pro-European pronouncements are being shown to have been a sham. 

"Tony Blair has only himself to blame," said Le Figaro newspaper, which is normally pro-British in its coverage. 

"In his enthusiasm for the battle between Good and Evil, he has forgotten that the bridge between Europe and the US... is not a one-way street." 

Blind revenge

For Mr Chirac there is also the piquancy of exacting vengeance for all those "anonymous" briefings at Downing Street, where the press was told it was only a matter of time before the French gave up being different and climbed back aboard the US bandwagon.

However, there are a few voices uttering misgivings. 

So-called "Atlanticists" within Mr Chirac's Union for a Popular Majority (UMP) party say it is all going to end in disaster for France. 

Not only will it earn the unrelenting hostility of the US, its own preferred international forum - the UN - will be proved irrelevant while any idea of a common European foreign policy largely determined by France will be a joke. 

In addition, some say, what is the point of undermining Tony Blair, who is the most pro-European leader Britain is likely to get? 

Because that is what it increasingly looks like. 
 

.

End of article 7

. European press review .

. Friday, 14 March, 2003, 07:08 GMT x x

.

Many editorials in the European press on Friday note that diplomatic manoeuvres over Iraq are fast approaching their endgame, and speculate on the implications of this for relations between EU partners.

The German chancellor's address to the Bundestag on Friday is awaited with keen anticipation.

And France's most influential newspaper hopes Europe will review its treatment of Serbia in the wake of Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic's death.

Death knell

Paris's Le Figaro says that France's rejection on Thursday of British proposals for a new resolution on Iraq was "felt by Britain like a slap in the face".

This rejection had "sounded the death knell on the current diplomatic endeavours".

An article in the French L'Express finds what it calls "contradictions" and "ambiguities" in President Jacques Chirac's stance.

Mr Chirac, the paper notes, has conceded that Iraq is disarming "largely as a result of the presence of the American forces" on its borders. "So why has France not sent its own troops... so as to speed up a happy outcome?" it asks.

The Paris-based International Herald Tribune quotes Britain's Minister for Europe, Denis MacShane, as calling for a special high-level meeting of European Union members to prevent what is perceived as "anti-Americanism in some European capitals" from "poisoning" the EU's enlargement with threats of exclusion to East European candidates who back the United States on Iraq.

"Both the accusation and the call", the paper says, "well reflected British rage" over France's stance in the crisis over Iraq.

Shopping and voting

With unemployment in the world's third largest economy now standing at 4.7 million, German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder is set to deliver a major speech to parliament on Friday which he hopes will finally help to kick-start his country's flagging economy.

Germany is mired in a deep malaise  Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

The Berliner Zeitung predicts that the chancellor will announce "a far-reaching relaxation of the law protecting workers from wrongful dismissal" - a move thought to have the blessing of his coalition partners, the Greens.

Giving small businesses more freedom to hire and fire would, it says, give them "greater opportunities to hire staff in a manner more attuned to the state of the economy".

"Germany," the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung says, "is mired in a deep malaise mostly but not exclusively economic in nature, and Germans are almost desperate to hear their government tell them how they are to get out of it."

"If the chancellor announces just a few patchwork reforms," the paper warns, "his government's already abysmal level of support will fall still further - perhaps even to the point where he will come under pressure from within his own party to resign."

So Mr Schroeder, it believes, "needs to unveil a comprehensive plan, one that calls on all interest groups to make sacrifices that will lead to concrete improvements".

The economic crisis is threatening to swallow Schroeder whole  Le Temps

As the paper sees it, the chancellor "has to convince Germans that he has a viable plan to get the country on the road to recovery". If he does convince them, it adds, "much can follow, if people think the pain is being shared around fairly".

The Swiss Le Temps sees Friday's address as a bid by the man it calls "the tightrope walker Gerhard Schroeder" to "come across as the saviour of a country on the edge of the abyss".

Although Berlin's rejection of war against Iraq was popular in Germany, the chancellor has failed to take advantage of this, the paper says, adding that "the economic crisis is threatening to swallow him whole".

The Berliner Zeitung sees a law passed by the Bundestag on Thursday extending shop opening hours on Saturdays as another missed opportunity.

"On the eve of Schroeder's loudly publicized speech, the government coalition has shown yet again how down in the dumps it is".

Shop opening hours, the paper says, have the same symbolic power for the German economy as the law on hiring and firing, and what politicians, consumers and businesses wanted was a complete lifting of restrictions on weekday shopping hours.

There are better things to do than drag small children into supermarkets at weekends  Die Tageszeitung

But the trade union lobby had succeeded in blocking "far-reaching reforms from which many people would have derived some benefit".

Die Tageszeitung, however, begs to differ. It believes that extending shop opening hours is the "most superfluous reform of the red-green legislative period" and will do nothing to create new jobs.

The paper dismisses the new law as "an example of the trendy politics the Greens also try to pursue", seemingly heedless of the fact that "there are better things to do than drag small children into supermarkets at weekends".

Plea for generosity

The leading French daily Le Monde hopes that at least one good thing might come out of Serbian Prime Minister Zoran Djindjic's death - that the rest of the world will reassess its commitment to supporting the process of democratization in the country.

The paper castigates the US for "stingily measuring out portions of aid" and being heavy-handed in its demands for Serbia to cooperate with the International Criminal Tribunal in The Hague.

Europe, it adds, is "less boorish" towards Belgrade than America, and can lay claim to having "sponsored the institutional reform that made it possible to avoid the brutal secession of Montenegro".

But as far as economic assistance is concerned, Europe too "has been found wanting", the paper concludes.

The European press review is compiled by BBC Monitoring from internet editions of the main European newspapers and some early printed editions.

 

.

End of article 8

. Honduras acts over child killings .

. Friday, 14 March, 2003, 15:41 GMT x x

.

The Honduran Government is to create a special commission to investigate the deaths of 1,569 street children in the past five years.

The Permanent Commission on the Physical and Moral Integrity of Children will search for those responsible for the deaths, Interior Secretary Ramon Hernandez said. 

The commission will include church leaders and government officials. 

The move comes a month after the human rights group Amnesty International began a six-month campaign to stop the deaths of street children in Honduras. 

'Extrajudicial executions'

Amnesty International says that, despite various efforts, the government has not managed to prosecute the killers of even a minimal number of the children.

Last month, the group said "the Honduran Government must not shirk its obligations and continue to ignore the murders and extrajudicial executions" of children.

It said that although in most case perpetrators were unidentified persons, testimonies from survivors and witnesses indicate that police officers could be responsible for some killings.

"In those cases where there have been allegations of participation of the security forces the authorities have not acted with diligence to determine the involvement of police or army personnel in the murders," the group said.

Amnesty International also urged the authorities in Tegucigalpa to come up with a concrete plan and timetable of action to solve the problem. 

According to the group, 556 street children were killed in 2002. 
 

.

End of article 9

. Japan threatens N Korea sanctions .

. Friday, 14 March, 2003, 07:35 GMT x x

.

Japan has stepped up patrols near North Korea

Japan has threatened to impose economic sanctions on North Korea if it tests a ballistic missile, according to government officials quoted by Japanese media.

North Korea has tested two short range missiles in recent weeks, prompting speculation it is preparing to launch a longer-range version similar to one it fired over Japan in 1998.

Japanese government sources said possible sanctions would include a halt to cash transfers and exports to the North, according to the Kyodo news agency and leading newspapers.

Japan's exports to North Korea totalled about $135m in 1999, while cash transfers from Japan's sizeable Korean community are also thought to be significant.

 The sanctions threat came a day after the United States resumed reconnaissance flights near North Korea, as the stand-off over the secretive state's nuclear programme showed no signs of abating.

Map shows range of Taepodong 1 missile, flown over Japan in 1998. Range 1,500-2,000 km, payload: 1,000 kg  Evidence that North Korea preparing flight test of Taepodong 2. Range up to 8,000 km (could reach western US)  Other missiles: Scud-B: Range 300 km, payload 1,000 kg  Scud-C: Range 500 km, payload 7600-800 kg  Scud-D (Nodong): Range 1,000-1,300 km, payload: 700-1,000 kg  North Korea's missile programme

Japanese newspapers have reported that Pyongyang might be preparing to test-fire its Rodong ballistic missile, which has a range long enough to reach almost anywhere in Japan.

The Japanese Government played down the reports, saying it had "no specific information" on a possible launch.

But Japan's defence agency has confirmed that a surveillance warship has been sent closer to the Korean Peninsula, in what was described as "regular patrol activities".

The US Air Force has also resumed reconnaissance flights in international airspace off North Korea, 11 days after a US plane was intercepted by North Korean fighters jets.

North Korea has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on ballistic missile tests since 1999. But in January it threatened to lift the ban, as fears over its nuclear ambitions mounted.

Nuclear warning

Those fears were given fresh impetus on Wednesday, when Washington warned that North Korea's nuclear programme may be much more advanced than previously thought.

CRISIS CHRONOLOGY  16 Oct: US says N Korea admits to a secret nuclear programme  14 Nov: US halts oil shipments to N Korea  22 Dec: N Korea removes monitoring devices at Yongbyon nuclear plant  31 Dec: UN nuclear inspectors forced to leave  10 Jan: N Korea pulls out of anti-nuclear treaty  12 Feb: IAEA refers issue to UN Security Council  27 Feb: US says Yongbyon reactor restarted  March 2: N Korean jets intercept US surveillance plane in international airspace  10 March: N Korea fires second missile into sea  Timeline of tensions

Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly said that Pyongyang's uranium enrichment programme could be only months away from producing weapons-grade material.

North Korea has already re-started its Yongbyon nuclear reactor, which could soon be reprocessing nuclear fuel into plutonium - another way of making nuclear bombs.

The BBC's State Department correspondent Jon Leyne says experts believe the North could soon have a production line able to make up to a bomb a month.

Mr Kelly confronted the North Koreans over the existence of a nuclear programme last October, triggering the latest crisis.

He admitted that most of Washington's allies in Asia were pressing for the US to acquiesce to Pyongyang's demands for direct talks with the North.

But Washington is sticking to its policy of pushing for multilateral talks, saying North Korea's nuclear ambitions concern the rest of the world, not just the US.

South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun has again called for "urgent" steps to resolve the nuclear crisis.

Mr Roh said on Thursday that resolving the standoff was his top priority, as another war on the Korean peninsula would reduce South Korea's prosperity to ashes in a moment.

 

.

End of article 10

. Schroeder calls for 'massive effort' .

. Friday, 14 March, 2003, 12:32 GMT x x

.

Mr Schroeder is under pressure to act

German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has called for a "massive joint effort" to revive the country's huge but flagging economy. 

Every sector of society would have to make its contribution, Mr Schroeder told parliament in a speech intended to lay out his ideas for economic reform.

In practical terms, this means measures to ease Germany's stifling labour laws, making it cheaper to hire and fire, and trimming generous welfare provision, Mr Schroeder said.

To sweeten the pill, Mr Schroeder announced that the government would be giving out 15bn euros (£10.1bn; $16.2bn) in low-interest loans to local governments and the hard-pressed construction sector.

No serious tax hike or expansion in state spending would be necessary to fund his plans, Mr Schroeder insisted.

Great expectations

Mr Schroeder's speech to the lower house of parliament was one of the most keenly-awaited events of his near five years in power.

His speech had the title 'courage for change' - however he did not offer a root-and-branch reform of the system, but an exercise in careful pruning  Click here for more analysis on Mr Schroeder's speech

Critics have complained that Mr Schroeder's left-wing government has done little to deregulate the economy, something business leaders see as crucial.

German unemployment has soared as high as 4.7 million and, at more than 11%, its jobless rate is among the highest in Europe.

At the same time, economic growth has slowed almost to zero, and the country's stock market has been among the worst performers in the world.

Softly softly

Expectations for Mr Schroeder's speech have been high.

Voters are waiting for Mr Schroeder to deliver

His supporters say that it has taken this long to produce concrete proposals because he has ambitious and far-reaching economic plans.

Critics argue that he is hamstrung by the caution of Germany's powerful trade unions, his core supporters.

Mr Schroeder's government was re-elected in September by a narrow margin, but has since slumped in the polls.

Coming up with a plan to turn the economy around has been seen as crucial for Mr Schroeder's political future.

Swift setback

Mr Schroeder's plans for tackling economic reform have not run smoothly.

As an indication of the difficulties of pushing through unpopular measures in the current political climate, the upper house of parliament quashed the government's plans to raise taxes even while Mr Schroeder was speaking.

The package of tax measures was supposed to raise 3.5bn euros this year to help reduce Germany's budget deficit.

Germany has been in constant difficulties this year and last with the European Commission, which aims to prevent EU member states running up large budget deficits and potentially destabilising the euro.

The German Government still hopes to rescue parts of the legislation. 
 

.

End of article 11

. The fight over Iraq's oil .

. Friday, 14 March, 2003, 08:25 GMT x x

.

The threat of war in Iraq has just one reason, say many critics: Western hunger for oil. Daniel Yergin examines whether the claim stands up. 

Oil figures large in the debate over the current crisis with Iraq. How could it not? Yet, when it comes to oil, there are two decidedly different points of view. 

Iraq's oil infrastructure is deteriorating rapidly

According to some, the Iraq crisis has been created as a pretext and cover for an "oil grab" by the United States, Britain and the international oil industry. 

According to others, Iraq, once liberated from the current regime, will flood the world market with cheap oil, boosting economies and providing a quick fix for concerns about our energy security. 

Although there is a wide gulf between them, both these points of view have one thing in common - basic misapprehension about the scale of Iraq's oil industry and the timing for new production. 

A second tier oil producer

No question, Iraq is a very big oil country. Its reserves are the second largest in the world - behind only those of Saudi Arabia. 

Iraq's army destroyed Kuwait's oil infrastructure during its retreat

But the real picture is different. Iraq represents just 3% of the world's total production capacity. Its oil exports are at about the same level as Nigeria's. 

In contrast to the 1990-91 Gulf crisis, which was more about energy security, this current crisis is focused on overall security, and it requires several leaps of logic to conclude that the current Iraq crisis is "all about oil". 

Physically, Iraq could double its current capacity, but that could well take a decade or more, and would still leave it in the second tier of oil nations. 

No US administration or any British government would launch so momentous a campaign - and take such risks - just to facilitate a handful of oil development contracts and a moderate increase in supply half a decade from now. 

The 'day after' Saddam Hussein

What would be the future of Iraqi oil without a Saddam Hussein? 

War could damage Iraq's output at the very moment when a new regime would desperately need oil revenues to secure its own stability. 

Saddam could also torch Iraq's oil facilities in a pyrrhic defeat, although the prospect of post-war tribunals in Iraq might deter some Iraqi commanders from obeying any such orders. 

There should be no assumption that Iraq will welcome foreign investors on a reasonable timetable

And there is the critical question of authority. Who would be making decisions? 

If there were a temporary military government, it would be preoccupied with establishing firm control over Iraq's weaponry and laying the basis as quickly as possible for a new Iraqi government with broad representation. 

The country earns the bulk of its living - $15bn (£9.5bn) in 2001 - by exporting oil. 

For that reason, any temporary military authority would be keen to see the "new" Iraq maximise its oil earnings and would be loath to get much involved in the decision making about the future of the industry. 

For its part, any new Iraqi government will be intent on getting its arms around its number one economic resource so that it can generate as much revenue for reconstruction and development as quickly as possible. 

Following Kuwait's example?

Iraq is not Afghanistan. It has the means, through oil, to pay for rebuilding the country. 

Are the Russian and US energy ministers striking a deal on Iraq's oil?

But a new government will also have another priority. It will be determined to bolster its sovereignty, legitimacy and nationalist credentials - all of which will be essential requirements for holding the country together. This ensures that when the time comes to sit down with the oil companies, Iraq will be a tough negotiator. 

There should be no assumption that Iraq will welcome foreign investors on a reasonable timetable. History warns that such is not a foregone conclusion.

 After the 1991 Gulf War, Kuwait said it would open its oil industry to foreign investment; 11 years later that has yet to happen - because of nationalistic opposition in Kuwait's parliament. 

The limits of Iraqi oil

One of the reasons that the "It's all about oil" discussion gets off on the wrong track is that it makes the assumption, often without realising it, that Iraq would turn over its current 2.8 million barrels per day of production capacity to international companies. 

Companies will be cautious when it comes to spending billions of dollars until they are pretty confident about security and stability

But that's a misleading assumption. Why would a new Iraqi government want to split revenues? 

It does not need the international companies' investment for fields that are already developed, and can simply purchase technology and equipment for existing fields. 

However, for its undeveloped fields, a post-Saddam government will need capital - lots of it - for exploration and new production. And that is when a new regime is likely to turn to international oil companies. 

Weighing investment risks

Which ones? It will have no shortage of suitors. 

Companies will be eager to get in line to sign contracts with a country that has 11% of the world's proven reserves. (Saudi Arabia, the highest, has 25%; the North Sea has just 1.7%). 

It costs billions of dollars to restore destroyed oil infrastructure

But they will be cautious when it comes to spending billions of dollars until they are pretty confident about security and stability. 

And, for the companies, "stability" applies both to the new regime itself and also to the contracts they sign with it. 

Companies from several countries - Russia, France, Italy and China, among others - already hold contracts, but because of UN sanctions they are not operational. 

Companies without contracts, including the British and American ones, will have to assess how much time and trouble they are willing to bear. 

For the oil companies, the big issue is how to manage the range of risks - from the geological to the fiscal to the political. In response, they often work together in consortia and partnerships, and that's likely to be the way things work out in Iraq. 

The companies with existing contracts will likely team up with other companies - American, British, European, Canadian, Australian, Japanese - to form new partnerships. 

Three years to restore output

Any new Iraqi regime has to face the stark reality - the deteriorating condition of the Iraqi oil industry. 

Production capacity has dropped from its peak of 3.5m barrels a day in 1980, before the Iran-Iraq War, to about 2.8m barrels per day and continues to fall. 

Reservoirs have been damaged by years of mismanagement. The infrastructure - whether wells, pipelines, pumping stations or ports - is in poor shape and environmental considerations are widely ignored. 

Iraq would not have the ability to 'flood' the market [with oil] - nor would it have the desire

To get back to 3.5m barrels a day could take three years or more, at an estimated cost of at least $7bn.

The next hurdle is to increase production above that. Another two million barrels per day would require a major push and would still leave Iraq several rungs below the capacity of the big three producers - Saudi Arabia, the United States and Russia. 

Making that leap to 5.5m barrels a day would come some time after 2010 - at a cost of upwards of $20bn. 

Some assume that Iraq could turn into an Opec-buster as its output increases. But its likely growth in output would not give Iraq that kind of clout. 

It would not have the ability to "flood" the market. Nor would it have the desire. Its intense need for revenues would make it much more interested in selling oil at $20 or $25 a barrel, rather than at a bargain basement rate such as $10. 

Competing with the Caspian countries

World oil demand is growing, driven by countries such as China and India.

The competition is shaping up: On one side are Russia and the Caspian countries, primarily Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Standing on the other side is the Middle East, including Iraq. 

The race to supply growing world demand has a clear and tangible prize: by 2010 the growth in world oil consumption could mean an additional $100bn or more a year in oil revenues flowing into the treasuries of nation states. 

After "the day after", Iraq will be better positioned - and highly motivated - to compete for its share. It will be a strong competitor. But it will also be only one of several strong contestants. 

Daniel Yergin is author of the 1992 Pulitzer prize-winning "The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power" and co-author of "Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy"

BBC 4 is currently showing a series of films based on "Commanding Heights".
The programmes will be broadcast Thursdays on 13 March, 20 March, 27 March, 3 April and 10 April at 2030. 

 

.

End of article 12

. Venezuela strike leader wins asylum .

. Friday, 14 March, 2003, 22:20 GMT x x

.

Ortega is a veteran union leader

Costa Rica has granted political asylum to a leader of the recent failed strike to oust Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Carlos Ortega, who faces rebellion and incitement charges, walked into the Costa Rican embassy in Caracas on Friday, saying he feared for his personal safety.

The trade union leader, who had been in hiding, played a key part in the two-month strike which paralysed Venezuela's vital oil industry. 

Venezuelan Interior and Justice Minister Lucas Rincon said Mr Ortega would be given safe passage out of the country.

Popular support

"For humanitarian reasons... [Costa Rica] decided to grant asylum and it has communicated as much to the Venezuelan Government," a Costa Rican foreign ministry statement said.

Hundreds of flag-waving supporters of Mr Ortega surrounded the embassy to cheer him, chanting "Ortega, friend, the people are with you!"

Venezuelan Vice President Jose Vicente Rangel issued a statement in which he did not criticise Costa Rica's decision to grant Mr Ortega asylum but condemned the two-month strike he had helped organise.

"Dangerous events occurred which endangered the life and physical safety of the population," he said.

Crackdown

Mr Ortega had been in hiding since 20 February when a judge issued a warrant for his arrest. 

The president of the one-million-strong Venezuelan Workers Confederation was initially accused of treason, rebellion and incitement though the charge of treason was later withdrawn. 

Chavez regards strike leaders as traitors

Another leader of the strike, Carlos Fernandez of the Venezuelan business confederation Fedecameras, is currently under house arrest awaiting trial on the same charges. 

Arrest warrants have also been issued for seven fugitive executives of the state oil monopoly, Petroleos de Venezuela SA. 

President Chavez has allowed two other major political foes to leave the country over the past year:

• Pedro Carmona, who briefly replaced him as president during April's coup, was allowed to leave for Colombia 
• Naval officer Carlos Molina, who faced an investigation for his part in the coup, was granted refuge in El Salvador

Venezuela's strike, which petered out in February, was the culmination of unrest against President Chavez, a populist leader with leftist tendencies who narrowly survived a coup in 2002. 

His critics accuse him of amassing power and damaging the economy with his policies.

Venezuela, once the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, is still recovering from the strike. 
 

.

End of article 13

. Alert issued as flu fears grow .

. Saturday, 15 March, 2003, 16:52 GMT x x

.

Concern is growing about the illness across east Asia

The World Health Organisation has taken the rare step of issuing an emergency travel advisory amid fears that a mystery virus which has infected scores of people in Asia may be spreading. 

The WHO has so far not advised travellers to avoid any particular destination, but has warned them to watch out for symptoms, including a high fever, difficulty in breathing, and coughing. 

In the latest development, a doctor from Singapore was taken off an airplane on Saturday and quarantined in a Frankfurt hospital, German health authorities say.

Two people travelling with him on the flight from New York to Singapore were also put in quarantine. 

The WHO says it has received reports of more than 150 suspected new cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) during the past week. 

AFP news agency reports that 40 people have been infected in Vietnam.

First victim

 It is thought the Hanoi outbreak started last month after an American businessman travelling from Shanghai infected hospital workers; he died in Hong Kong.

In Canada, a mother and child have reportedly died from the flu, while officials in Singapore report 16 cases.

The flu is thought to be highly contagious

In Hong Kong, 47 medical workers are thought to have the virus; the Taipei authorities have reported three cases.

No figures are available yet from China where it is thought there are many cases.

"This syndrome, SARS, is now a worldwide health threat," said WHO Director-General Gro Harlem Brundtland.

"The world needs to work together to find its cause, cure the sick and stop its spread." 

The man quarantined in Frankfurt had apparently already exhibited symptoms of the mystery pneumonia while in New York.

'Sent home'

While he and two others were taken to hospital, other passengers who got off in Frankfurt were sent home and told to stay there. 

People continuing their journey to Singapore will be met by health officials there. 

Singapore and Taiwan have warned their citizens against travelling to the worst affected places - Hong Kong, China and Vietnam. 

The Thai authorities have also imposed strict procedures to try to guard against the illness, instructing airlines to report immediately if any passengers display symptoms. 

It is possible the outbreak is linked to a spate of "atypical pneumonia" cases in the southern Guangdong province of China in February, which killed five people and infected hundreds more. 
 

.

End of article 14

. Brazil prison judge murdered .

. Saturday, 15 March, 2003, 16:23 GMT x x

.

Violence in Brazil involving dr