DATE=03-13-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-86

TITLE=ZIMBABWE

BYLINE=PAT BODNAR

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

/// EDS: MARINA OTTOWAY,AFRICA SPECIALIST,

CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE ///

INTRO: Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has won a fifth term in office, amid accusations of ballot irregularities and ruling party violence. The main opposition candidate Morgan Tsvangirai, has rejected the results as "rigged", and accused the president's party of stuffing ballot boxes. Marina Ottoway is an Africa specialist and a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. She tells News Now's Pat Bodnar that it is clear the elections were flawed.

MS. OTTOWAY: I think there are very few doubts that the elections were not fair. We do not know exactly how the cheating was done, but certainly we know that a lot of polling stations were kept closed, that there were fewer than in previous years, there was a deliberate attempt to keep voters in areas that were likely to go against Mugabe -- that is, in the cities -- from voting, there was widespread intimidation of the opposition supporters in the period running up to the elections.

MS. BODNAR: The country's Justice Minister described the outcome as a runaway victory for Mr. Mugabe and the Zanu PF Party.

MS. OTTOWAY: Well, certainly the numbers they are announcing so far show that, but I don't think that one can rely on those numbers.

MS. BODNAR: South Africa called the election legitimate. Nevertheless, the U.S., Britain and France, as well as the opposition candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, said a variety of things, from rejecting the results, saying the results were irregular and deeply flawed.

MS. OTTOWAY: Well, we need to take into consideration that the real problem is what happens next. And I think what happens next does not depend on what the United States or Britain or the European Union does; it depends very much on what Zimbabweans do. Because what I expect is that the people, at least in Harare and probably in other cities as well, will take to the streets. And what happens next, it is extremely unpredictable. A lot of it depends on how the military behaves, but not exclusively on the military, because Mugabe will almost certainly unleash the so-called war veterans if there are street demonstrations. And those are bound to side with him, so the situation would turn very violent. (End of interview.)

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