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Bush's Japan Trip to Focus on Economy, Security Amy Bickers Tokyo 14 Feb 2002 13:41 UTC 
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The U.S. president and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi last met in July in the United States.
Tokyo quickly pledged support for the United States after the September attacks, and enacted laws to allow its Self-Defense Forces to provide logistic support to the U.S.-led military campaign.
The new laws are controversial because the Japanese Constitution bars the country from taking part in international conflicts.
SDF ships were dispatched in November to the Indian Ocean and have been providing fuel and transporting supplies for U.S. and British troops in Afghanistan.
Toshihiro Nakayama, a research fellow with the Japanese Institute for International Affairs, says the two leaders are likely to reconfirm the importance of cooperation on security issues, and for a stronger Japanese role in the Asia-Pacific region.
"I think generally the U.S. will endorse this and even though we are not fully prepared, we will be preparing in a medium-term basis for playing a more positive role. I think the visit by the president and his meeting with Prime Minister Koizumi would confirm this," he says.
President Bush's recent declaration that North Korea is part of an "axis of evil" of states that support terrorist activities puts an even greater spotlight on Japan's defense role. The reclusive communist state is believed to be smuggling drugs to Japan and to have kidnapped Japanese citizens in the past. A suspected North Korean boat sank after the Japanese coast guard chased it out of Japanese waters last December.
President Bush also is likely to praise Japan for its leading role in the rebuilding of Afghanistan. Tokyo held an international conference in January that raised $4.5 billion in aid, including $500 million from Japan.
The vulnerable state of Japan's economy will be high on the two leaders' agenda. Japan is wallowing in a deep recession. Unemployment is at a record 5.6 percent. Climbing corporate bankruptcies are loading Japanese banks with increasing bad debts.
Washington repeatedly has encouraged Tokyo to take whatever steps necessary to become a global engine for growth. While there is little evidence yet of a turnaround, many analysts expect Mr. Bush to tread gently on this issue. Haruo Shimada is an adviser to Prime Minister Koizumi and an economics professor at Keio University in Tokyo. He thinks that any gestures from President Bush that are perceived as harsh would offend the Japanese public.
"I think President Bush is very careful not to give an impression that he is lecturing Japan but will try to give advice and show that whenever possible the U.S. is trying to give Japan assistance and guidance," he says.
U.S. political analysts have indicated that Mr. Bush may raise subtle concerns about whether the Koizumi government is committed to its economic reform plans, while at the same time offering support. According to a top White House economist, Mr. Bush will likely urge the Japanese leader to pursue structural reforms and downplay the role of exports in a recovery.
Professor Shimada thinks Japan could benefit from U.S. guidance on reviving consumer confidence and strengthening its services industries.
"Japan has been working hard for the last half century simply to sell manufactured goods to the United States. The Japanese government and the society as a whole has not really paid attention to meeting people's needs. I think this is a great area where the U.S. can provide advice and I hope President Bush and his aides are alert enough to notice this problem," he says.
Mr. Koizumi instructed his economic ministers on Wednesday to draft an anti-deflation plan and urged the Bank of Japan to act boldly to halt deflation.
The Bush visit comes at a difficult time for the Japanese leader, whose popularity fell after he fired popular cabinet minister, Foreign Affairs Minister Makiko Tanaka. Some analysts say that if Mr. Bush comes across as too strident on the economy, he could hurt Mr. Koizumi's popularity even further.
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