DATE=12/31/02

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=YEARENDER: NORTH / SOUTH KOREA RELATIONS

NUMBER=5-52816

BYLINE=AMY BICKERS

DATELINE=TOKYO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: North Korea's nuclear brinkmanship of the last several weeks has created tremendous uncertainty in its already rocky relationship with South Korea. V-O-A's Northeast Asia Correspondent Amy Bickers charts the high and low points in inter-Korean relations over the past year and looks at how South Korea's new president-elect might handle his nation's enigmatic communist neighbor.

TEXT: North and South Korea, foes since the Korean War ended in 1953 with no peace treaty, began 2002 with continuing tensions over the Bush Administration's tougher policy towards Pyongyang. Washington has been South Korea's top ally since the Korean War and the North has lingering resentment about the tens of thousands of U-S troops stationed protectively in the South.

Pyongyang was deeply angered when President Bush took office in 2001 and ordered a review of U-S ties with the North, which had warmed under the Clinton Administration. It halted a series of reconciliation projects with the South, started after the Pyongyang summit in 2000 between North Korea's Kim Jong Il and South Korean President Kim Dae-jung.

Contact only resumed in April of this year when the South sent presidential envoy Lim Dong-won to Pyongyang.

The two countries resumed holding reunions for families separated by the Cold War divisions on the Korean Peninsula, continued work on transportation routes to link the Koreas and persisted with several tourism and economic ventures to bring badly-needed hard currency to the impoverished North.

That all changed again in October, when U-S Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly went to Pyongyang to confront North Korean officials with evidence that it had a secret uranium enrichment program - in violation of several international accords - including a 1994 non-proliferation pact with the United States.

Tensions quickly escalated. Washington and its allies announced an embargo on fuel-aid shipments to the North. The North has responded by moving to re-open old nuclear facilities - which experts are warning could produce weapons-grade plutonium.

/// OPT /// On December 22nd, North Korea began to remove U-N monitoring devices from its Yongbyon nuclear complex, moved fresh fuel rods to the site, unsealed a plant to reprocess nuclear fuel and kicked out U-N inspectors. /// END OPT ///

The growing crisis has created political confusion in South Korea, where a new president, Roh Moo-hyun, was elected on December 19th on a pledge to continue the current policy of engaging North Korea. Mr. Roh has since indicated that may not be possible with the North's potential nuclear threat.

Scott Snyder represents the Asia Foundation in Seoul.

/// SNYDER ACT ///

That is perhaps the thing that is most perplexing about the timing of the North Korean move to restart its reactor. We just saw a victory by the ruling party candidate who had pledged to maintain a policy of openness and dialogue with North Korea. And the North, through its actions, even before the new administration has a chance to put together a foreign policy team, is creating circumstances that are going to make the possibility of sustaining that policy probably impossible because of the negative South Korean public opinion related to North Korea's aggressive behavior, which is defying all international norms.

/// END ACT ///

Political analysts having differing explanations of North Korea's motivations. Some say it wants to negotiate with Washington from a position of strength. Others believe the current U-S military build-up to prepare to force Iraq to give up its weapons of mass destruction has influenced Pyongyang.

Hideshi Takesada, a professor at Japan's National Institute for Defense Studies, says North Korea is engaging in brinksmanship while the world is focusing on the U-S-Iraq confrontation.

/// TAKESADA ACT IN JAPANESE, FADE ///

He says the North does not want war, but hopes to reduce U-S influence on the peninsula. He believes that North Korea thinks it can bargain by promising to halt its recent nuclear activities if President-elect Roh pledged to reduce the U-S troop presence in the South.

So far, Mr. Roh has given no indication he would be willing to negotiate this point and, in fact, has stressed the need to work more closely with the United States to peacefully resolve this latest crisis with North Korea.

But despite the current nuclear stand-off, South Korea has continued to engage the North where it can - namely joint economic projects that financially benefit Pyongyang.

/// OPT /// On December 30th, the two nations signed a long-awaited maritime accord, which is expected to cut the costs of inter-Korean trade. Next month, construction is slated to start on a nine-billion dollar industrial park in Kaesong, North Korea, financed by a South Korean entrepreneur. The two nations are also continuing with their money-losing tourism projects to the North. /// END OPT ///

Balbina Hwang is an analyst with Washington's conservative policy institute, Heritage Foundation. She says if the nuclear crisis drags on, South Koreans will lose patience with the softer engagement approach to the North - which has been the hallmark of Kim Dae-jung's presidency for the last five years.

/// HWANG ACT ///

Kim Dae-jung's Sunshine policy was abysmally unpopular. So I think what that means is that South Korean people are no longer going to be satisfied with just handing over North Koreans money without seeing some real, substantive results. And if North Korea does continue to act belligerently, then South Koreans may become less tolerant.

/// END ACT ///

But for the time being, many South Koreans say they hope that North Korea's moves towards reactivating its nuclear facilities will not lead to the end of the reconciliation process on the divided Korean Peninsula.

Many see the nuclear crisis as an issue between Washington and Pyongyang, and do not believe South Korea is a target for the North's nuclear weapons.

So while the year 2002 has showed some limited signs of improving North-South ties, the events of the last weeks of the year have cast a foreboding shadow on the future. How both sides manage these issues that are now front and center will undoubtedly be a major focus for 2003. (SIGNED)

NEB/HK/AB/JO