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COMMENTARY -- WAR -- (the news is directly below):
You have gone back in time and are standing in the midst of a lush ancient forest. You hear and see some large vegetarian dinosaurs feeding on the moist soft leaves of brush and trees. You also see skulking about like a cat after a mouse, other smaller dinosaurs with a lighter build about them trying to catch and eat even smaller dinosaurs. You also see small dinosaurs feeding on the vegetation. Suddenly you hear a loud screech which terrifies every creature in this setting and sends them running for fear. The screech is coming from a large version of the lighter built and fast moving dinosaur with teeth designed to rip and tear other animal flesh. It quickly moves up on the large vegetarian. It lacks the weight of the vegetarian it is pursuing but has more speed and agility. It's massive and powerful jaws are set into motion as it lunges upon the vegetarian and immediately draws blood as it rips and tears away at a vital spot. The vegetarian tries to defend itself by using its heavy tail to whack the aggressor but it was too slow this time in defending itself and it quickly weakened because of pain and loss of blood. Dizzy and in weakness it dropped to the ground and took its last breath. The aggressor ruthlessly tore away at the most tasty spots and then left the carcass for scavengers.
In the natural world this story describes the "food chain" and the "predatory" character of those creatures at the top of the food chain. The predatory behavior is driven by hunger and the instinct of the predator to feed and care for it's young. Although all animals have some kind of reasoning capability their instincts most often prevail and their reasoning is subordinate to these instincts to make them more effective at surviving.
How does this story relate to war? Is war wrong? Is war necessary? What is accomplished by war?
Mankind is to be above the animals, that is he should be exercising his reasoning capabilities over his instincts. But mankind often does not do that. Tribal behavior is something like wolf pack behavior. There is a kind of civilized order within the pack but anything outside the pack is considered fair game. There is usually a pack leader. In many ways, the societies and cultures and communities of mankind are like the pack where the reasoning capabilities of the individuals in the pack and the consensus of the pack is directed at serving the primitive instincts of survival.
Although man is more technically capable as he sits atop the food chain, many of the nations, societies, cultures, and communities of man are more predatory in character with leaders that know how to control the pack and maintain their control over the pack. If allowed, these predatory packs of mankind will act just like the predatory dinosaur. No amount of talk or reasoning will prevent the attack because the overall social behavior is predatory and reason is used to make the predatory behavior more successful. The only defense against such predators is to be both prepared and more capable if attacked. But often a defensive posture will fail as it did with the vegetarian dinosaur which was no threat to the other dinosaurs. Many animal packs that are vegetarian adopt defensive and preventative postures as a pack to minimize any predatory attack on members within the vegetarian pack. Buffalo, cattle, and many other animals do this.
But only mankind has two things the animals don't have. Man is smart enough to anticipate a predatory attack and respond in a defensive manoeuvre of defense to disable or kill the predatory enemy before the "screech" of death is heard. Man has the means and abilities to develop sophisticated weaponry. Compare this weaponry to the teeth of the attacking dinosaur and the tail of the vegetarian dinosaur.
But if a society or community of man is not aware of such dangers by other predatory type societies and communities then it peacefully and obliviously eats, drinks, sleeps, reproduces, plays, and in other ways occupies itself. When the "screech" of impending death is heard it may be too late. This is especially true if the predatory society has technological superiority and readiness to use that technology in an aggressive manner. This susceptibility scenario is also true if a society or community of man has been deceived into thinking that the predators are their friends or that arbitration, deals, and discourse will stop the aggression. Nothing will stop the predatory nation or community from its behavior other than its own destruction. A predatory human or human society is far more committed to violent aggression than is a predatory animal seeking a prey for a source of food. A predator is ruthless and uncaring whether it be a dinosaur, a wolf, or man. The "whimper" (or dialog to prevent aggression) that precedes death is understood by the predator as victory and the prey can be savaged. There are those that feel that a kind of social remedial exercise involving discourse, and various other forms of reward and penalty administered against the predatory society, by some powerful majority, will cause such predatory communities to change. This is foolishness as long as the pack leader remains leader. The leaders drive the communities. This is true even in western democratic nations. Sometimes leaders reflect the views of the community that elected them and perhaps leaders exploit the community that elected them.
When leaders have control of the key social institutions they can use these institutions to brain wash the community as a whole. If leaders don't have control of the key social institutions then new potential pack leaders can use these institutions to brain wash the community and thereafter supplant the pack leader. For example, often the educational institutions are infiltrated with authority figures that have a profound influence on those they teach. So it is not unusual in just about every society to see social discontent first voiced by universities and institutions of higher learning. The so called media in the form of newspapers, magazines, radio and TV industry, the publishing industry, and the movie industry are powerful means of brainwashing a society and re-engineering the "average" social mentality. A third category is the religious institutions, seminaries, and related organizations. Whoever controls the content of these institutions inevitably controls the pack mentality. Laws and government are derived from this mentality. As the mentality changes so also do the laws and inclinations of government.
As long as the average human being allows himself or herself to be herded along in a pack type social environment there will be predatory societies that feed on the other societies. They will skulk about and wait for their moment. They will form unholy and wicked alliances with each other only to eventually turn on one another. War in this context simply realigns those at the top of the food chain. War is for the purpose of establishing different leaders, it rarely occurs for the purpose of true peace and prosperity directed from a global perspective. Although the word peace is used a lot today its meaning varies depending upon who uses it. Peace as used by world leaders means the establishment of their objectives at the cost of their opponents. World leaders shake each others hands in such deceptive gestures of peace. It is a paradox. It is a horrible dilemma. If any society disarms, adopts arbitration and dialog to effect change then they will be perceived as manipulatable through that dialog. They will also be perceived by the potential aggressor as weak because they rely too heavily on a so called diplomatic solution to disputes. Meanwhile the predatory society or societies will take whatever gain they can through the dialog and when their moment comes, lunge, and with their mighty jaws and sharp teeth rip and tear away at the vulnerabilities of their prey.
Therefore, God must manipulate the devil who influences man towards predatory behavior. The devil incarnate is Anti-Christ. The Anti-Christ or Satan is any human being that uses their reasoning capabilities to serve their primitive instincts. By so doing they have opened up and turned over their mental "real estate" to the spiritual forces of darkness that bring only death. The spiritual force of evil is only able to influence the human mind through the mechanism of our primitive instincts for survival. If we lust and are preoccupied with the things and values of a world driven by such instincts then we have been deceived into a form of mental slavery that brings only hatred and death in its wake.
Jesus Christ is the answer. He is both an example of what we must be like as humans and he is the facilitator/mediator/interface whereby we can all know and experience the love/caring of God.
If you have any comments, questions, or concerns you can email this ministry at thilts@help-for-you.com
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. . . Day by Day with VOA .. . . 3 Americans Killed in Yemen; Work of Possible Terror Cell, say Officials . Nick Simeone Washington 30 Dec 2002, 20:06 UTC   .  Listen
to Nick Simeone's Report (RealAudio) Simeone
Report - Download 322k (RealAudio) .
An American doctor and two hospital-staff members were killed when a gunman opened fire at a hospital in Jibla, a town about 100 kilometers south of the Yemeni capital, Sanaa. "The man brought in a rifle under his coat as if he were cradling a baby," said Jerry Rankin, president of the U.S.-based Southern Baptist International Mission Board, which operates the hospital. "He was immediately apprehended after the shooting by our security personnel there," Mr. Rankin said. A hospital pharmacist, also an American, was wounded in the ambush. At this point, it is not known whether the gunman was working on behalf of a terrorist group or acting alone. But Yemeni authorities describe him as a 30-year-old suspected Muslim extremist with possible ties to others they say could be plotting more attacks on foreigners. The U.S. government has repeatedly warned Americans to avoid travel in a country that is the ancestral homeland of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, and one with porous borders where several terrorist groups have a presence. Just more than two years ago, 17 American sailors were killed in a terrorist bombing on the U.S. Navy destroyer Cole in Aden harbor, an attack that investigators link to al-Qaida. Yemen is considered an ally in the war on terrorism, but the State Department warned last month of what it called a preponderance of information pointing to the possibility of more attacks on U.S. interests in Yemen. Yemen Times publisher Walid al-Saqqaf said he believes it is too early to determine whether the hospital ambush was carried out by al-Qaida. "There are many fundamentalist groups that may seem to be linked to al-Qaida, but they have their own ideologies. They may be sympathetic toward them, but not necessarily operated by them," he said. Southern Baptist missionaries have worked in Yemen for decades, and Mr. Rankin pledges not to allow these tragic events to chase humanitarian workers out of the country. "If we would, we would probably be ending our ministry in many of the countries throughout the world. There have been threats, they are taken seriously, but our people are very culturally adapted. It just goes not only with being a Christian missionary now, but with being an American," Mr. Rankin said. This was the second attack on American missionaries in the Middle East in as many months. In November, an American nurse was killed in Lebanon. No one has been charged in that shooting.
. BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 20:41 GMT . DR Congo rebels
sign ceasefire
.
Tens of thousands are
said to have been displaced
Aid agencies say that tens of thousands of people have been displaced by the conflict between the rival factions. Last month most groups signed a power-sharing agreement to end Congo's four year war, but fighting in several parts of the country has since escalated. The battle for the strategic and wealthy town of Beni started only hours after the agreement was concluded. Undermined hopes UN peacekeepers reported that as many as 75,000 people have since been forced to flee their villages as troops and militiamen of at least three rebel factions clashed in the north-eastern corner of Congo that borders Uganda. Now, under UN pressure, leaders of the rebel groups have agreed to lay down their weapons and observe an immediate ceasefire. The deal was signed in Gbadolite, the northern jungle headquarters of the largest faction involved in the fighting, the Movement for the Liberation of Congo. Its leader, Jean-Pierre Bemba, blamed Congo President Joseph Kabila for provoking the crisis, which has undermined hopes that the two men would soon be working together, as they promised, in a government of national unity. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 16:44 GMT . New Kenya
leader promises reform
.
Handover of power:
From Moi (l) to Kibaki Kenya's new leader Mwai Kibaki says his administration will not
engage in a witch-hunt against the party that ruled the country since its
independence in 1963.
In his inaugural speech before huge crowds in central Nairobi, Mr Kibaki said: "Our task will be to advance Kenya's interests and ensure they are well served."
He said there were enormous challenges ahead and he called on all Kenyans to help rebuild their nation. "I promise not to let you down," he told the crowd. "I will be your servant in all humility and gratitude." But the first head of state to come from the ranks of the opposition did not mince his words when he referred to years of "misrule and ineptitude" by his predecessor Daniel arap Moi. Mr Kibaki declared: "Corruption will now cease to be a way of life in Kenya. "I call upon all those members of my government and public officers accustomed to corrupt practices to know and clearly understand that there will be no sacred cow under my government." Euphoric mood Hundreds of thousands attended the inauguration in historic Uhuru Park, witnessed by regional heads of state. A ramp was built for Mr Kibaki, 71, who is in a wheelchair after a car accident on the campaign trail.
At the end of the brief ceremony there was a huge cheer from the crowd. Mr Moi admitted he had mixed feelings about handing over power, but agreed that "the people of Kenya have spoken". "You have expressed your democratic right in a mature and peaceful way," he said. "You are a credit to your country and a demonstration to the world that Africa can manage its own destiny without destruction." However, the outgoing president was booed and pelted with earth as he made his final speech as head of state. Overwhelming win Mr Kibaki is Kenya's third head of state. He roundly defeated governing Kanu party candidate Uhuru Kenyatta in Friday's poll in which his National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) won a landslide victory. He was declared the winner on Sunday after the electoral commission said he had an unassailable lead. The Institute for Education in Democracy - an organisation helping the electoral commission - said Mr Kibaki had won 63% of the vote to 30% for Mr Kenyatta. The opposition is also reported to have won an overwhelming majority in parliament. Correspondents say voters appear to have tired of the corruption, poverty and ailing economy that have blighted the lives of many Kenyans over recent years.
Commonwealth election observers declared the poll "free, fair, peaceful and transparent". The international community also praised the election and welcomed Mr Kibaki's victory. United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan issued a statement congratulating the new president. He said the UN would "continue to support the efforts of the new government and people of Kenya to consolidate the democratic process, improve governance and foster economic development." US Secretary of State Colin Powell said: "The president-elect has made a commitment to ending corruption. "This would be good for the Kenyan people and, of course, good for relations with the United States." . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 02:18 GMT . Chavez defies
oil strikers
.
Chavez refuses to
give in to calls for his resignation Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has made clear his determination to
defeat the four-week-old strike crippling the country's oil
industry.
Mr Chavez broadcast his weekly address to the nation from a re-opened petrol distribution depot near Caracas on Sunday.
Speaking as crowds of supporters cheered strike-breaking fuel trucks driving away, the president accused protest organisers of stabbing the country in the heart by targeting its oil industry. But as he spoke, tens demonstrators again filled the streets of Caracas to demand the president's resignation. During his address Mr Chavez blamed the turmoil on a wealthy elite and said he would not accept demands for early elections or a referendum on his rule. "I've got no plans to back down. My plans are for an offensive, an attack," he said. Mr Chavez also said the worst was over, and that the long queues of people waiting in their cars for petrol would begin to dwindle. Foreign help The strike began on 2 December and has cut daily oil production from three-million barrels to less than 200,000, according to protest leaders.
Government officials have said fuel shortages will soon be overcome, thanks in part to 525,000 barrels of petrol imported from Brazil and a further 400,000 due to arrive from Trinidad. However striking oil executives have said some five million barrels are needed for the country to get back to normal. The strike leaders also dispute the figures of oil production given by the government. According to the head of the state oil company, PDVSA, Venezuela's normal production of 3.1 million barrels a day is down to about 700,000 barrels.
But the opposition says the figure is much lower - about 150,000 barrels. The strikers have vowed to continue the stoppage until President Chavez - whom they accuse of mismanaging the economy and of authoritarianism - steps down. On Sunday, tens of thousands of Venezuelans took part in another anti-government demonstrations in Caracas, marking the 28th day of a general strike. Addressing the crowd, union leader Carlos Ortega said Mr Chavez has "declared war on Venezuelans". "They're going to have to kill us to stop the people," He said. "Absolutely no one can stop this strike." . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 15:36 GMT . Analysis:
Arroyo's loss of appeal
.
Arroyo: Efficient
but unengaging
She has statistics in abundance at her fingertips, and well-rehearsed sound-bites for pretty much every question. She prides herself in being a hands-on president, who works into the small hours of the morning (unlike her notoriously unfocused predecessor Joseph Estrada who used to spend his nights partying with friends). She is a respected, US-trained economist who brought talented people into her cabinet to replace Mr Estrada's cronies. Tough image She has tried everything to demonstrate her tough approach towards crime - even appearing on a magazine cover with key ministers three months ago dressed as the characters in the Hollywood blockbuster Men In Black.
All to no avail. Gloria Arroyo has failed the most crucial test of any Filipino president. She has failed to be loved by her people. The praise Mrs Arroyo has received for her courageous decision to stand down in 2004 is double-edged. No-one is rushing forward to beg her to reconsider; contrast that with the tears and theatrics which accompanied the announcement by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad this year that he too will soon be stepping down. 'Cold and unengaging' Part of the reason is personality. There is something cold and unengaging about Gloria Arroyo, about her mastery of economics and statistics (which in any case are rarely a good guide to reality in this part of the world). As a member of the moneyed elite in one of the world's most unequal countries, and as the daughter of a previous president, she had a mountain to climb to fill the place in the hearts of tens of millions of impoverished Filipinos once occupied by the shambling one-time actor, Joseph Estrada. Filipinos have with good reason become very cynical about their political representatives in the chaotic and violent democracy which emerged in the mid-1980s. In the absence of any real improvements in their lives, they expect only to be entertained by their presidents - a task right up Mr Estrada's street - and not to be preached to. Policy failures Mrs Arroyo's failure has been compounded by her inability to make progress where it really mattered to most of her people - in the economy and on crime. The country now faces a record budget deficit, thanks to the stubborn refusal by wealthy Filipinos to pay taxes. And violent crime, notably kidnappings by well-connected gangs, and bombings by Muslim or Communist rebels, have undermined her image as a tough, can-do president. In the Philippines you might be better served by projecting yourself as a can't-do president. The self-interested and corrupt business elite; the bitterly divided political factions; the sheer messiness and violence of the country - even compared to its South East Asian neighbours - make the Philippines almost ungovernable. Faced with several more popular rivals for the top job, including former Foreign Secretary Teofista Guingona and respected former Education Secretary Raul Roco, Gloria Arroyo seems to have understood that her place in history will be better assured by bowing out when her term of office ends in 2004. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 22:58 GMT . Concern
as cyclone hits Pacific
.
There is growing concern in the South Pacific about the fate of up to 3,000 people living on two remote Polynesian islands which have been hit by a violent storm.
The government in the Solomon Islands, to which the two islands belong, has been asked by the regional governor to request that an Australian military surveillance plane be dispatched to find out what has happened. Cyclone Zoe developed on Thursday close to Fiji and Tuvalu but as it gathered strength up to the highest category of a Level 5 storm, it veered westwards towards the Solomon Islands. It missed the main island but hit the tiny outcrops of Tikopia and Anuta on Saturday with winds estimated at over 180 km/h (110mph). Urgent call There are thought to be up to 3,000 people living on the affected islands but there have been no radio signals or any communication from them for two days. Neither island has an airfield and it would take a week for the nearest police boat to sail there. The regional governor says that the weather is too bad to set sail, and in any case he does not have the money to pay for the boat's fuel. He has urgently called on the Solomon Islands government to request that an Australian air force Hercules plane be sent to over fly the area. The aircraft would not be able to land but would be able to make a visual check to establish the extent of the damage. However, such a request for help may prove embarrassing for the central government, which only last week was strongly criticised by the Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer for misusing funding. Prime Minister Allan Kemakeza used Australian aid provided for civil servants' salaries to pay money demanded by police who had fired shots at his house. Meteorologists say the storm is expected to hover across open sea to the west of Fiji during Tuesday as it gradually weakens. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 14:12 GMT . Foreign
women jailed in Aceh
.
Lesley
McCulloch was found in a rebel area An Indonesian court has sentenced two foreign women to several months
in jail after they were accused of associating with rebels in the troubled
province of Aceh.
British academic Lesley McCulloch, 40, was jailed for five months and American nurse Joy Lee Sadler, 57, for four months.
She is HIV-positive, suffers from hepatitis B and has been on hunger strike for more than a month. The two women have been in custody since 11 September, when Indonesian troops picked them up in a village in Aceh and accused them of abusing their tourist visas. Aceh is the scene of a long-running conflict between separatist rebels and security forces - although a peace deal went into force on 9 December. 'No proof' Responding to the verdict against Ms Sadler, Ms McCulloch said it was a disgrace and that she would now join her companion on hunger strike. After her own sentence was passed, Ms McCulloch said: "I object to the sentence, there is no proof or witnesses that support this decision." The Glasgow-born woman's mother Mattie McCulloch said she was very sad at not getting her home, but more worried about her plans to go on hunger strike. "It won't achieve anything, the Indonesians are not caring what they do, her going on hunger strike will just have no effect on them," said Mrs McCulloch. She said she was "very relieved" that her daughter would be released in February because she has already served more than three months in custody. "However, that is six weeks away and I am concerned about the conditions that she is in in this prison," her mother said. Judge Asril Marwan told the Banda Aceh district court that Ms McCulloch's actions "could have threatened national security and the territorial integrity of the Republic of Indonesia". The charges carried a maximum sentence of five years. Trial delays Both women have complained about the length of the trial and the conditions in which they have been held. Ms Sadler has complained that her health was deteriorating and went on hunger strike to protest about court delays. At the start of the trial, the prosecution said the two women had "taken photographs, gathered data and documents and provided medical treatment" in a village in South Aceh where they were supposed to be on a tourist trip. The women said they could not refuse the demands of the armed rebels, who asked them to take photographs of houses destroyed by the security forces. The academic, who works at Australia's Tasmania University, said she believed the real reason behind her arrest was the Indonesian authorities' anger at articles she has written on Aceh for the Asian press. She has complained to the court of being beaten and sexually harassed by soldiers after being arrested. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 06:41 GMT . Philippines president to bow out
.
Arroyo
weighed it up and decided to quit Philippines President Gloria Arroyo has said that she will not be
standing for re-election in 2004.
She said she would spend the rest of her term in office trying to strengthen the economy and create new jobs. Ms Arroyo, 55, came to power in January 2001, when she took over from Joseph Estrada, who was ousted following corruption allegations. Mr Estrada is now facing charges of illegally amassing wealth during his period in office. United call BBC South East Asia correspondent Jonathan Head says that after less than two years in the job, President Arroyo appears to have lost heart.
As a US-trained economist, there were high hopes she could restore financial confidence and good governance. However, our correspondent adds, her sometimes cold and businesslike manner and her elite upbringing made it difficult for her to win the support of the poor who make up most of the population. Her administration has also been criticised for running up a large budget deficit and for allowing violent crimes like bombings and kidnappings to rise sharply. The president denied that she was pulling out of the 2004 race because of falling popularity. A November opinion poll showed that her approval rating had fallen to 45% from 54% in July. She said that her main interest was national unity. "My reading of the political winds tells me that the 2004 elections may well go down in history as among our most bitterly contested elections ever," Ms Arroyo told an audience in Baguio, a city in the north of the country. "This is because of the deep social and political divisions that we now have. "All I ask is we should be united." 'Relief' Polls show that Filipinos are most concerned about rising prices, corruption and law and order. Ms Arroyo said she would work to promote economic activity "unhampered by corruption and red tape in government" during her remaining 18 months in office. Ms Arroyo had served as vice-president under Joseph Estrada, until he was ousted in a popular rebellion supported by the army and the Catholic Church. President Arroyo said that now she had decided not to seek re-election, she felt "relieved of the burden of politics". . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 21:48 GMT . Russia warns over North Korea
.
North
Korea has reactivated the Yongbyon reactor Russia has voiced "regret" at North Korea's
decision to restart work at a mothballed nuclear complex.
Later the US said it was up to North Korea to change its course or "pay a serious price". Moscow's comments followed North Korea's hint that it could also pull out of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if the confrontation over its alleged nuclear programme continues. The North has already expelled inspectors from its nuclear power plant at Yongbyon and is threatening to restart the facilities. "Pyongyang's decision [to reactivate the reactor]... cannot help but provoke regret," said Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov in a statement.
Mr Ivanov said Moscow wanted to help salvage a agreement signed in 1994 between North Korea and the US, under which Pyongyang agreed to freeze its nuclear programme. But he warned: "This can only be achieved through constructive dialogue. Aggressive rhetoric and threats, and attempts to isolate North Korea can only escalate tensions, which will not help regional and international stability." The US says it is not planning to attack North Korea, but does favour a "tailored containment" strategy which could include economic sanctions on Pyongyang. On Monday, President Bush's spokesman said Pyongyang was isolating itself by its actions which threatened food and other forms of aid needed by North Korea. "The entire world stands ready to help North Korea, but North Korea will not realise any of the benefits and the help that they need until they reverse [their] current course," Scott McClellan said. "The international community has made clear that North Korea's relations with the outside world hinge on its termination of its nuclear programme." Isolation v engagement The US has urged the United Nations to consider imposing sanctions on North Korea. But South Korea's President Kim Dae-jung said on Monday that isolating Communist states did not work, and he would continue his policy of engagement with Pyongyang. "The more stalled relations are, the more effective this sunshine policy is. We cannot go to war with North Korea and we can't go back to the Cold War system and extreme confrontation," he said. North Korea's latest move is an apparent threat to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Last time it pulled out of the treaty, nine years ago, there was a dangerous confrontation with Washington, before the deal known as the Agreed Framework was signed. A statement from the North Korean foreign ministry, carried by the North's KCNA news agency on Sunday, said that the US had begun "ditching" the 1994 pact, "thus putting this special status of ours in peril". Under the Agreed Framework, North Korea agreed to freeze its nuclear programme in exchange for fuel and aid.But in November, Washington halted the fuel shipments because, it said, Pyongyang had admitted it was resuming its nuclear programme. In December, North Korea unsealed the Yongbyon plant and began moving nuclear fuel rods there. North Korea continues to demand direct talks with the US. Its stated aim is to sign a non-aggression pact with a country it sees as a direct military threat. But the BBC's Charles Scanlon in Seoul says the US is concerned that formal negotiations would be seen as rewarding bad behaviour.
. BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 12:39 GMT . Euro
entry conditions 'in doubt'
.
Top economists believe the government's aim of reaching a "clear and
unambiguous" assessment of the benefits of euro entry is impossible, according
to a press report.
Eight leading economists polled by the Financial Times newspaper said there was no objective method of gauging whether adopting the euro would benefit the British economy. "There is no purely scientific way of concluding that Britain's entry...would or would not unambiguously benefit Britain, the other euro countries, or the world as a whole," Robert Mundell, professor of economics at Columbia University, told the FT. The FT poll reinforces the view that a government recommendation to join the euro would be motivated in part by political considerations. The government is due to decide whether to recommend adopting the euro on the basis of five tests designed to assess whether the UK economy would be better or worse off within the single currency area. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, has said the government will come down in favour of euro entry only if these tests are met "clearly and unambiguously." In the balance The government's verdict is expected within six months, although the final decision rests with the electorate. If the UK government decides to back euro entry, it is expected to call a referendum on the issue before the next general election. While recent surveys suggest that a majority of the British electorate is against adopting the euro, some sections of the business community, including most exporters, are in favour. The pound's strength against the euro in recent years has made British goods more expensive, and therefore less competitive, within the single currency area. Euro supporters also argue that adopting the currency would give Britain more political clout within the European Union. Constraints However, opponents say Britain's economy would perform less well under the European Central Bank's 'one size fits all' interest rate policy. Some euro critics also argue that European monetary union should be seen as a precursor for even closer economic integration, warning that the UK may eventually face pressure to surrender control over tax policy if it adopts the euro. The economists polled by the FT included three Nobel prize winners. The three Nobel laureates were Gary Becker of the University of Chicago; George Akerlof of the University of California; and Robert Mundell of Columbia University, New York. The panel included Alan Budd, a former member of the Bank of England's interest rate-setting committee. The other members were David Hendry of Nuffield College, Oxford; Martin Weale, director of the Institute of Social and Economic Research; Wynne Godley of Kings' College, Cambridge; and John Muellbauer of Nuffield College, Oxford. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 12:18 GMT . Japanese stocks in New Year slump
.
Japanese
market is a headache for investors Japan's main share index has finished 2002 at
its weakest year-end close for 20 years, after losing 19% of its value over the
last 12 months.
Concerns over the bad loan crisis afflicting Japan's banking systems, and worries that soaring unemployment could prolong a decade-long economic slowdown, weighed on the index all year. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.55% in its last day of trade to finish at 8,578.9, its lowest year-end close since 1982. "It has been a disastrous market," said Tetsuya Ishijima at brokerage Okasan Securities. The Tokyo Stock Exchange will be closed through the New Year holidays, reopening for an abridged trading session 6 January. Economic failures The failure of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to fulfil his election promise to restructure the world's second largest economy depressed the Janese stock market in 2002. Exports, the main engine of Japan's economy, have also started to fall, adding to the gloom. The coming year is expected to be dominated by the actions of hard-line reformer Heizo Takenaka, who was appointed to head Japan's banking watchdog, the Financial Services Agency, at the end of September. His appointment was responsible for sending share prices to 19-year lows in October amid fears that he might take drastic action to deal with Japan's bad loan crisis. But subsequent political manoeuvring that forced Mr Takenaka to soften his stance sent share prices lower still, leaving the markets in "damned if they do, damned if they don't" situation. US threats of a war against Iraq and heightened tensions with North Korea also knocked the Nikkei lower, as it has most markets. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 09:36 GMT . Oil price surges to two-year high
.
The US
has been stockpiling oil to prevent shortages Oil prices have soared to a two-year high as
fears of a United States-led war with Iraq and a national strike in Venezuela
have disturbed the markets.
The oil price broke through $33 (£20.5) per barrel on Monday, the highest price since December 2000. Output from Venezuela, the world's fifth largest oil exporter, has been choked off by the month-long national strike. The price of light crude for delivery in February rose 1.4% to $33.17 a barrel on Monday morning in out-of-hours electronic trading on New York's Nymex market, a two-year high. Troop movements In London, the price of benchmark Brent crude rose 44 cents to $30.60 a barrel. The US government ordered more troops, war planes and naval vessels to move into to the Gulf over the weekend.
Analysts believe February or March are the most likely months for the battle of words between the US and Iraq to turn into a shooting war. "The speculation over a possible war with Iraq is driving all this buying, with many in the market keen to cover any eventualities by tapping both the February and March contracts," one broker in New York told Reuters news agency. Trade was particularly heavy in oil for delivery in March. International tensions are also simmering over North Korea's nuclear programme, after its officials removed monitoring devices set up by the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEA) and announced plans to restart nuclear generators. Tough tactics In Venezuela, opponents of the left-wing President Hugo Chavez took to the streets on Sunday to show their continuing support for the national strike and to demand early elections. Venezuela has been forced to import oil as its own production has slumped to roughly 10% of pre-strike levels, though government and strikers dispute the amount still being pumped. There is little sign of an end to the deadlock between the government and its opponents, a coalition of business and trade union interests. The president, in his weekly radio address, called the strikers "traitors" and threatened to sack more than 200 oil plant managers who have joined the strike. About 90 officials have been dismissed since the strike began 29 days ago. US crude oil prices rose to $32 a barrel for the first time in almost two years shortly before Christmas. Fears of war in the Middle East have pushed oil prices well above their $29.88 peak after the 11 September terrorist attacks last year. February crude was trading at $33.09 cents a barrel at 0450 GMT on Monday, compared with the Friday closing price of $32.72. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 15:51 GMT . Price-fixing fine for mobile phone firms
.
Mobile
operators are accused of fixing subsidy levels Five mobile phone operators have been found
guilty of price-fixing by the Dutch competition authorities and ordered to pay
big fines.
The competition authority has imposed fines totalling 88m euros ($91.7m; £57.2m) on the five companies. It said that from June 2001 on they had conspired to cut the fees paid to retailers, and share information on prepaid, non-contract customers. The regulator said the practice was initiated by Vodafone's Libertel unit, fined 15.2m euros, and Deutsche Telekom's local unit BEN, which was fined 24m euros. 'Substantial' fines However, it said the other operators also took part and levied fines on Dutchtone, owned by France Telecom, Royal KPN and mmo2's local operations. NMa, the Netherlands competition regulator, said in a statement that the fines were the biggest it had ever imposed. "This is harmful to the consumer because mutual competition between the various mobile operators was almost eliminated," it said. KPN, as the market leader, found itself hit with the biggest charge of 31.3m euros. It said it would appeal the amount, which it insisted "in no way reflects the magnitude of the matter", but would take a charge on its earnings in 2002. Spanish ruling Vodafone was also found to be in the wrong by Spain's telecoms regulator on Monday. The regulator gave Vodafone Espana three months to comply with a order to open its network to a rival operator, Abbla Mobile. The Spanish regulator has the right to take change of the negotiations if Vodafone Espana's mobile unit Airtel fails to agree a deal with Abbla Mobile within three months. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 11:50 GMT . Rescue plan for chip giant Hynix
.
Korea's government threatened Hynix with bankruptcy
A group of banks has voted to approve a $4bn
(£2.5bn) bail-out for Korea's giant computer chip firm Hynix
Semiconductor.
A meeting of the company's creditors voted in favour of the package, drawn up by Deutsche Bank after an hour of talks, an official of the Korea Exchange Bank (KEB) said. But the deal has been many months in the making with one of Hynix's leading creditors, KEB, orchestrating attempts to reach a deal among banks owed money by the firm. Hynix decided to split itself up in May 2002 to avoid being forced into a court-appointed bankruptcy after rejecting a sale to US rival Micron Semiconductor. Debt-for-shares swap Analysts say the rescue plan could trigger fresh complaints from rivals Micron Technology and Infineon about unfair state aid, as most of the banks involved are state-owned. Micron Technology has accused Hynix, the world's third largest maker of computer memory chips, of receiving unfair state subsidies and has lodged a request for sanctions with the US Commerce Department. German chipmaker Infineon has also lodged a complaint with European Union trade officials. Under the survival plan, Hynix's creditor banks have agreed to waive debts of 1.9 trillion won ($1.6bn) in exchange for shares in the struggling memory chip maker. They will also reschedule the pay-back deadlines on a further 3 trillion won of debt. Shareholders will be issued with one share for every 21 shares they own, in order to cut the number of shares in issue. Sell-offs Hynix is among the leading producers of DRAM (dynamic random access memory) chips, but massive oversupply over the past couple of years has driven down prices. For months the company was negotiating with US chipmaker Micron Technologies with a view to selling it the operation for $3.4bn. But on 30 April 2002 Hynix's board threw out the plan, which creditors had already endorsed. Hynix's board was believed to want to hang onto the DRAM operation, selling off the rest and relying on a recovery in DRAM prices to turn the company around. But the revival in DRAM prices has stalled since Hynix's rejection of the Micron deal, with prices slipping by as much as 20%. Hynix announced before the creditors' meeting that it had reached agreement to sell its shareholding in display panel making unit Imagequest for 45 billion won. The buyer is another Korean firm, corporate restructuring specialist GB Synerworks. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 16:48 GMT . Saudi Arabia maps out stock market
.
Saudi Arabia is trying to diversify its economy Saudi Arabia's most senior legislative body
has voted in favour of a law to turn the country's current, informal bourse
into a full-scale stock market.
The bill is now being referred to the cabinet for endorsement but King Fahd has the final say before it can become law. The bill sets out measures to increase transparency and accountability. The aim is to encourage foreign investment and to expand Saudi Arabia's relatively thin list of quoted firms. Thin trading The Saudi market is the biggest in the Arab world and its constituent companies are collectively worth $47bn (£29.3bn). But only 68 firms are listed and in the past decade there have been just 13 new listings. Trading is thin and declining, mostly because all but 27% of the shares on the market are owned by the government or wealthy individuals and families but also because the Central Bank-controlled bourse allows trading only between banks. Just 20 industrial firms are listed, and the kingdom's biggest groups - such as Saudi Arabian Airlines and the National Commercial Bank - remain in private hands. Oversight The new law is intended to change that, by setting up an "independent" stock market commission to oversee a new legal framework for all capital-related activities. The commission, the new law says, would be linked to the prime minister, who is the king. Before any of the changes take place, however, the government is holding the kingdom's largest ever privatisation. Saudi Telecom is being partially floated in February with the aim of bringing in 15.3bn riyals ($4.1bn; £2.5bn). . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 17:38 GMT . Semiconductor sales growth slows
.
The semiconductor sector often reveals wider economic
trends Global semiconductor sales expanded just 1.3%
in November over the previous month, heightening fears that a recovery in the
tech sector is still a long way off.
In its monthly survey, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics group said total sales in November were $12.7bn (£7.9bn). Although the rise was less than October's month-on-month 1.8% increase, the gain over the previous year was a more impressive 19.6%. But that still represents a slight slowdown from October, and experts noted that the comparison with 2001 was with the industry's worst year ever. Doldrums The problem for the chip sector is that the last three months of the year are normally among the strongest, as manufacturers count on a consumer spending spree over the holidays. This year, the most chip-hungry sectors - computers and mobile phones - remain in the doldrums. And early indications suggest that after a relatively good Thanksgiving, the November holiday during which US end-of year spending really kicks off, consumers have throttled back. Sales actually fell in the US by 0.8% from October, with Japanese sales down almost as much. "The WSTS numbers for November are historical data," one London-based investment bank analyst told Reuters. "Key is what happened in December. We've seen weak retail reports this month, and just before Christmas (US chipmaker) Cypress warned about weak wireless chip sales." The rest of the Asia-Pacific region managed a 1.3% expansion, and in Europe - where the use of chips in consumer electronics and cars outweighs computer use - sales were up 5.8%. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 20:22 GMT . US bankruptcies break records
.
WorldCom has taken top spot among global bankruptcies
For the second year in a row, the aftermath
of the stock market bubble of the 1990s has pushed US corporate bankruptcies to
new records.
The combination of massive accounting fraud and the free spending of the past decade has brought down a string of household names in the past year, including five of the 10 biggest collapses on record. The 186 public companies which went bust had a massive $368bn in assets, dwarfing last year's then all-time record of $259bn. But many are still functioning, thanks to the US's Chapter 11 bankruptcy system which protects firms from their creditors while they restructure. Scandal Whereas 2001's corporate failures were predominantly the result of debt problems, accounting scandals were the most notorious feature of 2002's list. Of the five biggest failures, four featured accounting trouble. Topping the list was phone company WorldCom, whose $104bn in assets made it the most expensive collapse in history. In comparison, Enron's bankruptcy recorded in December last year looks almost modest. Conseco, Global Crossing - another telecoms firm - and cable company Adelphia Communications were all also in trouble over allegations that they fiddled the figures. Only UAL, the parent of United Airlines, found itself in trouble solely for business reasons. More to come The worst is not over yet either, observers fear. And accounting fraud - WorldCom's accounted for more than $9bn of false profits on its balance sheet - is likely to remain the main motif. "To have a really big bankruptcy, you have to both have a company take on a huge amount of debt and either be badly run or fraudulently run," said Andrew Hodge, US economist for the Global Insight forecasting group. "There has to be something sufficiently attractive about the company that creditors foolishly or mistakenly extend huge amounts of credit." Many believe that the telecoms and tech companies and airlines that dominated the past year's list will give way to power companies and retailers, if confidence among consumers finally cracks. And franchise holders are also at risk, exemplified by the filing for bankruptcy in December of AmeriKing, one of Burger King's largest fast food franchise chains. . BBC -- Monday, 30 December, 2002, 19:38 GMT . Italian volcano flexes its muscles
.
Stromboli is one of the most active volcanoes in Europe
A volcano has erupted off Italy's Sicilian
coast injuring at least six people and bringing chaos to the surrounding
area.
A burst of gas from the tiny volcanic island which is home to the Stromboli volcano sent a mass of rock into the sea, causing a tidal wave.
More eruptions are expected although they are not believed to pose an immediate danger to the island's few hundred inhabitants. Scared residents were temporarily evacuated by the Italian navy as a precaution. "I saw the sun obscured by a cloud of lava ashes and a wave which was at least 20 metres high," an eyewitness told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica.
The eruption could be seen from neighbouring islands. According to La Repubblica, the tidal wave started by Stromboli reached the northern coast of Sicily. It displaced two boats being loaded with fuel causing an oil spill into the sea. The spill is said to be under control. Tourist attraction Situated on an island of the same name in the Lipari archipelago 60 kilometres (40 miles) north-east of Sicily, the Stromboli volcano is known for its frequent minor eruptions. The volcano is considered to be one of the most active in Europe. Its flow of lava, which slowly slides down the mountainside into the sea, is a tourist attraction. Vulcanologists are expected to monitor the Stromboli closely, but some predicted renewed activity a month ago. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
I promise not to let
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